Where Will Southwest Airlines Fly To From Fresno?

On December 16th, Southwest Airlines officially announced that it will begin serving Fresno Yosemite Int’l Airport starting in the spring of 2021. Many Valley residents were delighted with the news: Southwest Airlines has been one of the most wished-for national companies among Fresnans (possibly rivaled only by Ikea). While Southwest confirmed that it will begin flying to Fresno (as well as Santa Barbara), the airline did not say where it would fly, how many flights it would initially offer, or exactly when it would begin service. This has led to a lot of speculation, so now seems like a good time to explore the possible destinations that Southwest Airlines will serve from Fresno.

Courtesy of Southwest Airlines

What The First Southwest Flights Will Look Like

The only detail that Southwest gave about its new service to Fresno is that it will begin in “the second quarter of 2021.” It’s fairly likely that the first flights will start in late May or early June; this will give Southwest time to ramp-up service before the summer travel season, which is usually the busiest time of the year for airlines (but could be muted this year because of the COVID-19 pandemic). It’s also fairly likely that Southwest will initially offer 5-8 flights per day from Fresno. Southwest began service to Palm Springs with 5 flights per day, and is beginning service in Jackson, MS with 6 flights per day; Fresno would likely follow a similar pattern. It’s also likely that Southwest will offer more than one destination from Fresno in its initial offerings; Southwest serves multiple destinations from nearly all of the airports it has a presence at. So, let’s take a look at possible destinations Southwest will serve when it begins flying to Fresno in mid-2021.

Destination Airport	Odds Of Serving Initially	Probable Flights Per Day
1. Las Vegas (LAS)	5:1	2-3
2. Denver (DEN)	3:1	1-2
3. Phoenix (PHX)	2:1	1-2
4. San Diego (SAN)	3:2	1-2
5. Oakland (OAK)	1:1	1-2
6. Los Angeles (LAX)	1:2	1-2
7. Honolulu (HNL)	1:3	1
8. Houston (HOU)	1:4	1
9. Chicago (MDW)	1:5	1

1. Las Vegas (LAS)

Las Vegas is the most likely destination for Southwest from Fresno. The most compelling reason for this is the history of strong demand between Fresno and Las Vegas. For most of the late 2000’s, three airlines flew between Fresno and Vegas, including SkyWest (United Express), America West (US Airways), and Allegiant Air. An average of around 100,000 passengers per year flew between Fresno and Vegas in the years leading up to 2011, when US Airways pulled almost all of its non-hub flying out of Las Vegas (SkyWest pulled out of the route for the same reasons a couple of years later). Allegiant Air, an ultra low-cost carrier, has had a monopoly on the Fresno to Vegas route ever since. While demand has remained strong, only about 72,000 passengers flew from Fresno to Vegas in 2019, meaning there is likely room for another carrier on the route. Based on the continued strong demand to Vegas, the continued overall growth of passengers at FAT, and the reluctance of some Fresnans to deal with Allegiant’s “ultra low cost” business model, it’s likely that Southwest will do very well with Vegas-bound travelers from Fresno.

Another reason why Las Vegas is such a likely candidate for service from Fresno is the abundance of connecting opportunities there. Southwest offers non-stop flights to 55 destinations from Las Vegas, making it one of the airline’s largest hubs. Las Vegas is close enough to Fresno that it makes sense for both onward (eastbound) connections, as well as connections to some West Coast cities, such as Reno, Seattle, and Portland. Considering the large demand for travel to Las Vegas from Fresno, the proximity of the two airports, and the diversity of connecting options at LAS, it would be extremely surprising not to see Las Vegas as one of the first destinations that Southwest offers from Fresno.

Courtesy of Southwest Airlines

2. Denver (DEN)

If Denver were any closer to Fresno, it would probably be the most likely initial destination for Southwest. Denver has grown steadily to become Southwest’s largest hub in the western half of the United States, serving nearly 20 more non-stop destinations than Las Vegas. Notable among the non-stop destinations Southwest offers from Denver that it doesn’t from Las Vegas are New York LaGuardia (LGA), Washington Dulles (IAD), Philadelphia (PHL), and Boston (BOS). Denver also has very strong demand from Fresno as a final destination, finishing 2019 as the fourth most popular non-stop domestic city.

Denver finishes second to Las Vegas for a couple of reasons. The first is that it’s much further away than Vegas, making some of the connecting destinations it offers not practical for passengers arriving from Fresno (hardly anyone is going to fly to Denver to then connect back to San Diego, Oakland, LA, or Portland, for example). The second is that Southwest has shown that it prefers to begin serving new airports with shorter routes, and Las Vegas is less than half the distance from Fresno that Denver is. Still, it would be very surprising not to see at least one daily flight from Fresno to Denver as part of Southwest’s initial offerings to give Fresno access to all of the connecting options that are available there.

3. Phoenix (PHX)

Phoenix is another popular final destination from Fresno and another large hub for Southwest. American Airlines been slowly been upguaging its flights from Fresno to Phoenix, and future schedules show multiple mainline flights per day from FAT to PHX in 2021. Allegiant tried flying to a secondary airport in Phoenix in the mid-2010’s, and while those flights were not successful, they did show that the Phoenix region is a popular final destination for Fresnans. While Southwest’s PHX hub offers fewer destinations than Denver, it’s also closer than DEN, and it has some connecting opportunities that Vegas does not. The one thing working against Phoenix is that it would not really add much in the way of connecting options to Fresno if Southwest chose to serve both Las Vegas and Denver. Because of that, Phoenix is not a lock for being in Southwest’s initial offering from Fresno, but its status as a large hub and popular destination from Fresno still puts it solidly at #3.

4. San Diego (SAN)

San Diego has been an extremely popular destination from Fresno since Alaska Airlines began non-stop service, and Southwest might try to steal some of the nearly 100% market share that the Seattle-based airline enjoys on the route. Alaska has been steadily growing its FAT-SAN route, and will offer four flights per day in the summer of 2021. While Southwest does not have an especially large number of connecting options in San Diego, it does fly from SAN non-stop to two popular vacation destinations for Fresnans: Honolulu and Los Cabos. Presumably, Southwest could offer a one-stop option to one or both of those vacation destinations from Fresno through San Diego, and capture many passengers bound just for San Diego at the same time. Like Phoenix, San Diego is not a slam dunk for Southwest from Fresno, but it is certainly high up on the list of options.

5. Oakland (OAK)

As mentioned earlier, Southwest is likely to choose destinations that are relatively close to Fresno for its initial offerings. Because of this, it’s quite possible that Southwest will decide to offer flights from Fresno to Oakland. Oakland is a large focus city for Southwest, but it also does not offer nearly as many non-stop destinations as Las Vegas, Denver, or Phoenix. Additionally, Oakland does not have an especially large amount of demand for “O&D” travel from Fresno (meaning that very few people would only fly only to Oakland – many people would rather drive to the Bay Area than fly).

What Oakland does offer, however, are numerous connections to Hawaii and the Pacific Northwest, two areas that are difficult to get to through Denver, Phoenix, or Vegas. Southwest has shown that it will operate routes based almost solely on connecting traffic (the airline flies from Colorado Springs to Denver – a flight that can take as little as 15 minutes and is about as long of a trip as Fresno to Modesto), so it would not be surprising to see Oakland among Southwest’s initial destinations from FAT.

6. Los Angeles (LAX)

Los Angeles is on this list for some of the same reasons that Oakland is: it’s relatively close to Fresno, and it’s a focus city for Southwest. There is slightly more demand for travel to Southern California as a final (O&D) destination from Fresno than there is to the Bay Area, and two airlines have added new service from Fresno to Los Angeles in the past year. However, Southwest does not currently offer flights from Los Angles to Hawaii, and LAX is further from the Pacific Northwest than OAK is, meaning LAX does not add a lot of connecting options over the airports listed above it. All of this together makes Los Angeles slightly less likely than Oakland.

Courtesy of Southwest Airlines

7. Honolulu (HNL)

Some people will be surprised to see Honolulu on the list of possible Southwest offerings from Fresno, and while there’s definitely not an especially large chance of Hawaii being part Southwest’s initial offerings from FAT, it still merits a spot on this list. Southwest flights from Fresno to Honolulu would not be the first ever service to Hawaii from Fresno; there were actually non-stop flights to HNL from FAT back in the early 2010’s. While that service did not last long, it ended because Allegiant pulled out of the Hawaiian Islands completely, not because flights to Fresno did poorly (in fact, the load factors to Honolulu from Fresno were reported to be above 95%). Hawaii is a popular destination from Fresno, and non-stop flights will capture a lot of travelers who would normally drive to the Bay Area to fly there. Also, Southwest offers intra-island flights from Honolulu (meaning you can connect to Lihue, Kona, Hilo, or Kahului), so flights to Honolulu would also be able to carry connecting passengers bound for other islands. While it would still be a bit surprising to see HNL initially from Fresno, it would not be completely out of left field, and flights across the pacific could be in the cards for Southwest during the next five years if initial service does well.

8. Houston (HOU)

Houston (Hobby) has an outside chance of being in Southwest’s initial offerings for a couple of reasons. The biggest is that there are a lot of passengers who travel from Fresno to the Houston region every day, but currently no non-stop flights between the two cities. Demand to Houston is big enough for FAT to offer an incentive program that waives landing fees and provides cash assistance for marketing to airlines that offer new flights to Houston (and a few other cities). Southwest would qualify for these incentives should they choose to offer flights to Houston, which might be enough to convince them. Additionally, Houston is one of Southwest’s largest hubs, and service to HOU would add numerous connecting opportunities in the Southeastern US and Caribbean that are not available from airports like Denver and Las Vegas. Even considering both of these reasons, it’s still fairly unlikely Southwest would choose to offer flights to HOU, at least initially.

Courtesy of Southwest Airlines

9. Chicago (MDW)

Chicago (Midway) rounds out the list of possible options for Southwest Airline’s initial offerings from Fresno. Chicago would probably be higher on this list if United did not already offer non-stop service from Fresno to the other (and much larger) airport in Chicago: O’Hare. However, Midway is arguably Southwest’s largest and most important hub, and there is a lot of demand from Fresno to the Chicago area. Southwest would also be able to take advantage of FAT’s incentive program if it decided to serve Chicago. However, it’s probable that Southwest would only choose one airport between MDW and HOU for its initial offering (if it chooses one of them at all, which is not very likely), and it would probably pick the route it would have a monopoly on: Houston. Still, we can’t count out Chicago entirely.

Planned Terminal Expansion at The Fresno Yosemite Int’l Airport, Showing 1. Expanded TSA Checkpoint, 4. New Gate Space, 5. New Customs and Immigration Facilities, and 2. 3. 6. New Baggage And Ticketing Facilities

Odds And Ends

The Fresno Yosemite Int’l Airport will be extremely squeezed for space with the arrival of Southwest Airlines. FAT has grown by leaps and bounds over the past decade, and the airport is recovering quickly from the massive drop in travel related to COVID-19. There are currently only seven jetways at the airport, and all are being used by other airlines (multiple ground-level gates are also being used). Airport management will almost certainly need to squeeze Southwest’s flights in (unless another airline pulls out or agrees to use the ground level gates that are still available), but having such a tight schedule could cause any delays to snowball throughout the day and impact multiple airlines.

Luckily, the airport is embarking on a massive new expansion project that will add two new jetways and – more importantly – a proper international arrivals facility to process the multiple flights that arrive every night from Mexico (the current customs facility has been in a “temporary” trailer-like building for over a decade). The new jetways will allow international flights to both arrive and depart at the same gate, freeing up overnight gate space for domestic flights at the existing concourse. Those new jetways can’t come fast enough, and based on the pace at which flights are being added at FAT, it’s possible that the airport will need to start planning for its next round of expansion shortly after the current one finishes.

Professional Soccer Returns to the Valley

It’s official! The Fresno area will once again have a pro soccer team, that team will play in its own, soccer-specific stadium (anticipated to open in time for its first season in 2022!), and it will be called “Fuego FC.” As astonishing as that news is all by itself, the new team and stadium are just two components of a much grander vision that’s the brainchild of a local entrepreneur who immigrated to the US from Mexico, attended Dinuba High and Fresno State, and developed several successful local businesses. That man, Juan Ruelas, and his wife, Alicia, are setting out to develop a pipeline through which young Valley soccer talent will be able to progress all the way from youth soccer to the United Soccer Leagues, and perhaps even beyond, without ever needing to leave the Fresno area. There’s a LOT to unpack, so let’s get started.

The Fuego, which started play in 2003, were insanely popular.

The Return Of The Fuego

The loss of professional soccer in 2019 was a devastating blow to the Central Valley’s soccer community. Not only did Fresno FC’s demise bring an end to two years of high-level soccer in the Valley, it also meant the end of the long-standing Fresno Fuego men’s team, as well as the Fresno Freeze women’s team. The Fuego, Fresno FC’s wildly successful predecessor, had been incorporated into Fresno FC’s structure as part of the deal to bring the USL to Fresno. The Foxes’ owner, Ray Beshoff, took the rights to the Fuego with him when he left the Valley. Alas, much of the soccer community will be excited to learn that the Fuego name will be making a comeback.

One of the final Fresno FC matches.

A Grand Vision

The idea that led to the Fuego’s “reboot” actually had its genesis in youth soccer. Geographically, Fresno sits close to the center of California. So, it would stand to reason that the greater Fresno area would be the perfect location to hold state-wide events like youth sports tournaments. However, there are very few regional or statewide youth tournaments that actually take place the Fresno area. Even more frustratingly, talented youth soccer players generally must travel outside of Valley to get the type of training they need to compete at a high level.

Juan Ruelas, like many Valley parents, discovered this problem as his children, who grew up playing soccer, needed to travel long distances to compete in soccer tournaments and to find quality, high-level training facilities. At one point, Ruelas drove one of his children to San Jose twice per week to attend a soccer academy, but that experience gave him an idea.

Sac Republic FC started their own youth academy in 2016 – and made the playoffs that year.

Juan and Alicia knew that the Central Valley had (and still has) a giant pool of talented young soccer players. What if, he reasoned, there was a top-tier soccer academy located in a Central Valley, so that youth didn’t need to travel 2-3 hours by car to attend one (or, even worse, forego attending one entirely)? And, what if that academy was co-located with facilities that had the ability to host statewide tournaments, capitalizing on Fresno’s central location? Thus, Juan and Alicia began forming a vision for a sort of soccer player’s fantasyland, one with acres of regulation sized soccer fields, multiple futsal courts, an indoor field, and an academy that would rival the best in the state.

However, their vision did not stop there. Ultimately, the two wanted to provide Central Valley youth with a pipeline through which they could progress all the way from their very first soccer team to the USL and even MLS. In order to do that, they wanted to make sure that there was a professional team located in the Fresno area. Initially, they planned to partner with Fresno FC, but after things didn’t work out and Fresno FC ultimately left, Juan got in touch with some of Fresno FC’s former staff, including Chris Wilson, the former VP of Operations for the Foxes, who I sat down with last week to discuss the project. Ultimately, they were able to work out a deal with the USL to re-acquire the Fuego name and the rights to the Fresno area for USL soccer.

Infrastructure, Infrastructure, Infrastructure

After years of searching around the Fresno area, Juan and Alicia settled on a plot of land that’s located in Madera County near Children’s Hospital Central California. The location is close to the 41 freeway, making it only about a 5 minutes’ drive from Riverpark (where many area hotels are located) and 15 minutes from downtown. It’s also less than 10 minutes east of the 99 freeway (side note: hopefully this project will be the catalyst that finally gets Madera County to sign off on improving Avenue 9, which is a narrow country road that can be almost as busy as Herndon Avenue at times).

The proposed soccer park location: just north of the river in Madera County.

After purchasing the land and having it zoned for the soccer park and academy, they began drawing up their plans. Much of the legwork has already been completed, and Fuego FC is currently in the process of obtaining the final necessary permits and completing the remaining environmental studies. They anticipate breaking ground on the fields and academy next year.

An aerial view of the site, along with the proposed field and academy orientation.

The most exciting part of the project for Valley soccer fans – the new soccer stadium – is also slated to break ground in 2021. While exact details for the stadium have yet to be finalized, Wilson did share some general information about the venue. He emphasized that nearly every aspect of the stadium is being designed with fans in mind and as a direct result of fan feedback. Most of the stadium’s approximately 5,000 seats will be located along one of the two sidelines, with standard “flip-up” stadium seating on one side, and bleachers on the other. “We wanted to provide an affordable option” said Wilson of the bleacher seats.

Supporter group seating will be behind the goals, and will be able to accommodate all four of the current groups. There will be a few premium suites with associated VIP amenities too. Wilson also hinted about partnerships with local breweries, pubs, and restaurants, both as concession options, as well as potential locations for pre- and post- match festivities.

An example of what the new stadium could initially look like.

Late last week, news leaked that the Fuego and the City of Fresno were in negotiations for part of the Fresno Convention Center complex. According to its agenda, the city council is set to declare Selland Arena, Valdez Hall (the old “exhibit hall”), and the associated surface level parking lot as “surplus properties” during this week’s meeting. That would presumably clear the way for the Fuego to bid on the property.

However, there’s been no indications that a deal is anywhere near finalized, and quite a few hurdles need to be cleared for Fuego FC to even acquire the land, should they ultimately choose to. There’s also no evidence that Selland Arena needs to be torn down to make way for a stadium (side note: both the Fresno Monsters hockey team and Fresno Fire basketball team have expressed interest in playing at least some of their games in Selland). As some might recall, Fresno FC attempted to build their stadium on that same piece of land, but ran into problems related to the Cosmopolitan’s parking lot. The Cosmopolitan is still open, so it’s unclear how that problem would be resolved. It does, however, appear that the City of Fresno is significantly more enthusiastic this time around about keeping soccer downtown.

An overview of the convention center, with an example soccer field (green) and seating area (red) shown to scale.

Another possible option for the stadium would be building it in Madera County alongside the rest of the soccer academy facilities. Stay tuned for more information about the stadium’s location in the coming weeks and months as plans are finalized.

USL League One

The Central Valley Fuego, as the team will be known, will begin play in USL League One in 2022. League One is the third league of soccer in the United States, below MLS and USL Championship, but still fully professional. Fans of the original Fuego will likely recognize at least one team – FC Tucson – which also used to be in the “PDL” league and regularly faced the Fuego. It is likely that Tucson will (at least initially) be Fresno’s main rival in USL One, although there are rumors of other potential new California teams as well.

League One is partially known for its funny promotions.

Other teams in League One include Madison, a franchise that’s well known across the US soccer pyramid for their flashy social media presence and off the wall but popular promotions (ranging from a “pool party night” where they gave away hard seltzer and inflatable flamingos; to a “bro pack” that included a tank top, aviator sunglasses, and a can of natural light; to a Vatican-style release of “pink smoke” when they chose a new head coach), as well as Omaha, Richmond (Virginia), and Ft Lauderdale. “We’re going to be traveling more than some NFL teams” said Wilson of the spread-out league…aside from Fresno and Tucson, every other team is east of the Rockies.

A map showing current and future USL League One teams.

 

A Lofty Vision

From all appearances, the new Fuego FC organization (which will officially be named the “Central Valley Fuego Fútbol Club”) are making all the right moves to ensure the long-term success of their soccer academy and their team. Already, their front office has organized multiple behind-the-scenes focus groups comprised of former Fresno Fuego and Fresno FC employees and organizers, supporter group leaders, and other Valley soccer enthusiasts. They’ve taken what they have learned from those interactions and their own experiences (remember, many of the people behind the new Fuego team had a hand in the original Fuego and/or the Foxes), and put together what they believe is a winning formula:

• Fuego FC will be a continuation of the original Fresno Fuego, a popular and successful brand that still has major appeal around the Valley.
• The organization will be “unapologetically bilingual,” with English and Spanish equally represented and interwoven together.
• The organization will build a presence throughout the Valley, not just in the Fresno area. This will include everything from running clinics and player appearances, to offering academy scholarships and free tickets, to helping fund the construction of facilities like futsal courts.
• Perhaps most importantly, their process will be designed to take youth soccer players, give them a pipeline through which they can progress and grow their talents, and then use that pipeline to fill the Fuego’s roster. Eventually, the goal is for the majority of the Fuego’s professional players to be from the Valley.

Incorporating the above components, Juan and Alicia Ruelas (and the rest of the organization) came up with a five-year plan comprised of four major goals that they believe are 100% attainable:

1. To have the best team in USL League One, with multiple local players on the roster.
2. To have a soccer academy that is recognized and competes on a national level.
3. To bring back a USL League Two team (formerly the PDL) as another stepping stone to the Fuego.
4. To bring back a women’s team.

Eventually, Juan and Alicia would like to bring USL Championship back to Fresno, and they believe that such a goal is attainable with enough fan support. “We need people to come to games,” said Wilson about the possibility of anything beyond USL League One. The Foxes averaged just over 4,100 fans per game in 2019, an attendance number that would have made them second among all USL League One teams, but put them just below half of their fellow Championship teams. In order to make advancing beyond League One practical, that number would likely need to grow.

Fresno FC had multiple matches that drew above 7,000 fans, and some that drew less than 3,000.

However, with enough support, anything is possible. While still a decade or more away, Ruelas is hopeful that his vision will help lay the groundwork for the Fresno area to one day be in the running for an MLS team, and he thinks such an opportunity could come along with enough support and should the region’s population grow fast enough.

Wrapping It All Up

One can’t help but be impressed with everything that the Ruelas family is doing to bring a first-rate youth soccer academy and professional soccer team and stadium to the Central Valley. Every aspect of the project, from the soccer complex and stadium to the team itself, is being 100% privately financed, mostly by he and his wife, with no public money going towards the academy or stadium.

While the Ruelas family and Fuego FC are not asking for a single penny of public funding, they ARE asking the Valley for its support. That’s where everyone reading this article comes in. After news about the convention center land broke last week, I read dozens of comments online showing support for the new Fuego team, many asking “what can I do to help?” To that I say: buy tickets (you can already put down a deposit on season tickets) and merchandise, bring your friends and family, share your passion for soccer and for the Fuego with others, join a supporter group, get your kids involved in the academy, and, in general, show the world that the Valley is 100% behind this project.      

Fuego FC supporter groups are already on board with the new team.

After a year without a local team to root for, the Valley’s supporter groups are definitely ready to get behind the Fuego. “Fire Squad is extremely excited about the announcement of the Fuego, the connection to the history of football in our area and the development of this franchise for all the valley, from youth to professional level. We can’t wait to join together as supporters and root for a team that truly represents us all. Dale Fuego!” said Ed Stewart, head of Fire Squad Fresno. Another member’s comment, while simple, may have put it best: “let’s gooooooooo!”